Criticizing Obamacare played to Trump’s advantage in Michigan in 2016 before voters saw a specific alternative, said Matt Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State University. But in trying to replicate the message now, Trump “faces an uphill battle because voters have seen a plan” to scrap Obamacare, he said.
After Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion, about 634,000 newly eligible people enrolled in the federal-state program in Michigan — the fifth most of any state, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation (Michigan is the 10th most populous U.S. state). The state’s uninsured rate has fallen to 5 percent, half of what it was before Medicaid expansion.
On the day after his administration decided to support the lawsuit aiming to scrap Obamacare, Trump started publicly addressing health care again. On Tuesday, he tweeted that “The Republican Party will become ‘The Party of Healthcare!'”
Trump: The Republican Party will become “The Party of Healthcare!”
A day later, he told reporters that “if the Supreme Court rules that Obamacare is out, we will have a plan that is far better than Obamacare.”
When Republicans had full control of Congress and the White House in 2017, they failed to pass several variations of plans to repeal the health care law. Further, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that all of those plans would lead to tens of millions more uninsured Americans over the long run. Those forecasts increased political opposition to the proposals.
The Democrats who notched big victories in Michigan last year hammered the GOP over its Obamacare repeal attempts — though it was not the only major issue in their races. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer beat former GOP Attorney General Bill Schuette, a supporter of Obamacare repeal, by nearly 10 points to succeed Republican Rick Snyder. Democrats flipped two House seats in Michigan, and one of those winners — Rep. Elissa Slotkin — repeatedly criticized then-Republican Rep. Mike Bishop for his vote to repeal and replace Obamacare.
Exit polls suggest health care played a major role in Whitmer’s victory. Forty-four percent of gubernatorial voters said health care was the most important issue facing the country in November, according to NBC News exit polls. Of those respondents, 74 percent supported Whitmer.
Trump could have an alternative to making 2020 a referendum on the health care law, in Michigan and elsewhere. In a tweet previewing his rally Thursday, Trump instead brought up his efforts to boost the auto industry. Both the president and his predecessor Barack Obama tailored their messages to the state around car manufacturing, which remains the symbolic heart of Michigan’s economy even if it has become a smaller part of the state’s output.
“Will be talking about the many exciting things that are happening to our Country, but also the car companies, & others, that are pouring back into Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North & South Carolina & all over!” Trump said Thursday of the rally.
Not much evidence exists to support Trump’s claims of an auto industry boom under his watch. Last month, a little more than a million Americans were employed in auto manufacturing, up from about 992,000 in the previous year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Still, Grossmann said Michigan voters may not notice specific trends in auto industry jobs if the overall economy stays strong.
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